Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Where We Stand (27 Feb)

Women
It turns out that last night's game between Yale and Harvard had absolutely no impact on the final standings. All Harvard's win did was force Clarkson's tiebreaking win over Harvard to come into effect.

The quarterfinal series match-ups are as follows:
#8 Colgate at #1 Cornell
#7 RPI at #2 Clarkson
#6 Dartmouth at #3 Harvard
#5 St. Lawrence at #4 Quinnipiac

Princeton (6-14-2) had their chance at the #8 seed. They were leading Yale 2-1 heading into the third period, but the Bulldogs rallied, scoring three goals and keeping the Tigers out of the playoffs. This is the first time that Princeton missed the playoffs since 2001.

Yale (4-14-3) finished in 10th place, missing the playoffs for the fifth consecutive year.

Brown (5-17-0) misses the playoffs for the sixth time in seven years and finished in 11th. In 2006, the year before the beginning of that streak, the Bears played in the ECAC championship game, and in 2002 lost to Minnesota-Duluth 3-2 in the national championship game.

Union (0-18-4) finishes in last place for the 9th time in 10 seasons in the ECAC, failing to register an ECAC win for the 6th time (but the first since 2009).


Men
RPI (10-7-3) is currently in 2nd place by themselves. They clinch at least 4th place and a bye with a win over Clarkson. A tie means that they can't finish below fifth, but they would not be guaranteed a Top 4 finish. They can clinch 2nd place on Friday with a win, a SLU loss against Union, and a Dartmouth loss or tie against Princeton. They will finish somewhere between 2nd and 6th when all is said and done, and they control their own destiny for 2nd. A first-round bye would be the first for RPI under the current playoff structure.

RPI cannot catch Quinnipiac, and cannot be caught by Brown, Princeton, Cornell, Colgate, or Harvard. Every other team in the league can be potentially added to that list on Friday.
* If they don't lose on Friday, Clarkson gets added to the list.
* If they pick up as many points (or more) than Union does against SLU, the Dutchmen get thrown onto the list.
* They need to earn more points than Dartmouth or Yale to put the Big Green or the Bulldogs on the list.
* To put St. Lawrence out of range, it would take an RPI win and a SLU loss to Union.

Rooting interests for Friday night:
* Princeton over Dartmouth: There's no reason not to cheer for the Tigers.
* Union over St. Lawrence: If RPI beats Clarkson, then Union can't catch the Engineers. A Dutchmen win makes it so the Saints can't either. If RPI doesn't beat Clarkson, then it would be better to let St. Lawrence also win, since RPI controls their destiny against the Saints and it would leave Union out of range.
* Yale ties Colgate: RPI swept Yale, so there's nothing wrong with Yale creeping closer and it gives the Bulldogs a better chance of finishing in the Top 4, which could be critical when it comes down to tiebreakers, but if RPI loses to Clarkson, then we don't want the Engineers to be tied with the Bulldogs. Any result in this game is a good result.

The Quinnipiac-Harvard and Cornell-Brown games are irrelevant for RPI's placement, none of those teams can catch RPI or be caught by RPI. It would be better for Brown to finish in the Top 8 than Cornell, but if we're getting to that point in the tiebreakers, we've already run into some issues.

Tiebreakers for Friday night
SLU: Wins on season series (2-0)
Yale: Wins on season series (4-0)
Dartmouth: Unclear, goes to third tiebreaker (Record vs. Top 4) - Won by RPI unless Union is in the Top 4.
SLU/Dartmouth: RPI, Dartmouth, SLU
SLU/Yale: RPI, Yale, SLU
Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth
SLU/Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth, SLU


Individual tiebreakers for Saturday night
*St. Lawrence
RPI would likely win a direct tiebreaker with St. Lawrence when all is said and done. There are only three scenarios in which the teams end the season tied with each other.
1) RPI beats Clarkson on Friday, SLU ties Union on Friday, SLU beats RPI on Saturday. The Engineers would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins.
2) RPI ties Clarkson on Friday, SLU beats Union on Friday, SLU and RPI tie on Saturday. The Engineers would win the tiebreaker on a 3-1 season series win.
3) RPI ties Clarkson on Friday, SLU loses to Union on Friday, SLU beats RPI on Saturday. This would go to the record against the Top 4 teams.
* Quinnipiac is the only guaranteed Top 2 team - SLU had 2 points against them, RPI 1.
* Dartmouth - SLU 2, RPI 2
* Yale - RPI 4, SLU 0
* Union - SLU 2, RPI 0
* Clarkson - RPI 3, SLU 1
Union and Clarkson can't both get the bye, since they play each other, and in this scenario, RPI and SLU both would be in the top four themselves, or at least tied for fourth (in which case, Yale and Dartmouth are both top 4, winning RPI the tiebreaker). Thus, RPI would still win this tiebreaker as long as Yale or Clarkson is the 4th team, not Dartmouth or Union.

* Yale
Won by RPI on season series, 4-0

* Dartmouth
This almost certainly would go to the third tiebreaker (Record vs. Top 4). The only way it doesn't is if RPI is swept on the weekend and Dartmouth ties both Princeton and Quinnipiac, in which case RPI would win the tiebreaker on the second tiebreaker (ECAC wins) or RPI ties both Clarkson and St. Lawrence while Dartmouth sweeps Princeton and Quinnipiac on the weekend.
* Quinnipiac - RPI has one point, Dartmouth has none but plays Quinnipiac on Saturday.
* St. Lawrence - Dartmouth has two points, RPI also has two but plays St. Lawrence on Saturday.
* Yale - RPI 4, Dartmouth 2
* Union - Dartmouth 3, RPI 0
* Clarkson - Dartmouth has two points, RPI also has two but plays Clarkson on Friday.

If Yale is a Top 4 team and Union is not, then RPI wins the tiebreaker. If Union is a Top 4 team and Yale is not, then Dartmouth wins the tiebreaker. Otherwise, there's still quite a bit of flux in this tiebreaker.

* Union
Won by Union on season series, 4-0

* Clarkson
Only comes into effect with a Clarkson win on Friday, then a Clarkson win and RPI loss on Saturday. That causes a series split between the teams, and causes identical ECAC records. This goes to the Top 4.
* Quinnipiac - RPI 1, Clarkson 0
* St. Lawrence - Clarkson 3, RPI 2
Thus, if RPI and Clarkson tie for 3rd, it would go to the fourth tiebreaker, record against Top 8 teams.
* Yale - RPI 4, Clarkson 2
* Dartmouth - RPI 2, Clarkson 2
* Union - Clarkson 4, RPI 0
* Brown - RPI 3, Clarkson 1
* Cornell - RPI 2, Clarkson 2
* Princeton - Clarkson 4, RPI 1
* Colgate - RPI 4, Clarkson 1
RPI would win the Top 8 tiebreaker as long as Princeton or Union finished 9th. Colgate cannot finish above 9th unless Union does as well, and would require Brown to finish below 9th. That makes even this a solid bet to go to the fifth tiebreaker, goal differential in head-to-head competition. If that happens, RPI will win the tiebreaker provided that their loss on Friday is by three or fewer goals. More than four, Clarkson wins. If it is by four goals exactly, the sixth tiebreaker goes into effect, goal differential in games against Top 4 teams.
* Quinnipiac - RPI -2, Clarkson -4
* St. Lawrence - Clarkson +3, RPI 0 or worse
If RPI and Clarkson are tied for 3rd, Clarkson would win on the sixth tiebreaker if it got that far - and it would be, at the end of the day, because of an empty net goal scored by Quinnipiac.

Multiple level tiebreakers for Saturday night to come following Friday night's games.

Notes:
* RPI will finish behind Quinnipiac for the second consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Brown for the eighth consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Princeton for the second consecutive year.
* RPI will finish ahead of Harvard and Colgate for the first time since 2011.
* RPI will finish ahead of Cornell for the first time since 2000.

Remainder of the league:
Quinnipiac (16-1-3) will finish first and host the lowest remaining seed in the ECAC quarterfinals in three weeks. It is their first ever Top 4 finish in the ECAC.

St. Lawrence (9-7-4) and Yale (10-9-1) have clinched at least home ice in the first round, sitting 3rd and 4th respectively. St. Lawrence controls its own destiny for 2nd, the Saints' last bye was in 2009. Yale controls its own destiny for a bye position.

Yale is tied for 4th with Dartmouth (9-8-3) but sits in 4th because of their advantage in ECAC wins. Dartmouth could still finish with the bye or could still end up on the road in the first round. A first round bye would be the fourth in five years for Yale. For Dartmouth, it would be the second consecutive two-year cycle where Dartmouth goes from being on the road in the first round in one year to having a bye in the next. They were on the road in 2010, had a bye in 2011, and were on the road in 2012.

Union (8-8-4), Clarkson (8-9-3), and Brown (6-8-6) are alone in 6th, 7th, and 8th respectively. Each controls their own destiny for home-ice, could reach the Top 4, but could also be on the road in the first round instead. Union has had four byes in the last five years. Clarkson has not had a first-round bye since being the #1 seed in 2008. Brown has not had a home playoff game since 2005.

Princeton (7-10-3) and Cornell (7-10-3) are tied for 9th, with Princeton winning the tiebreaker due to a season sweep against the Big Red. Cornell could potentially reach a tie for fourth that they could win, while Princeton is guaranteed to be playing in the first round. The Big Red have never been lower than a 5 seed in the current playoff format, and have not failed to host a playoff series since 1999. Princeton will play in the first round for the fourth straight year.

Colgate (6-11-3) will be playing in the first round, and could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th. They are in danger of falling into the same cycle as Dartmouth - they had a bye in 2010, were on the road in 2011, and had a bye in 2012.

Harvard (5-14-2) will finish either 11th or 12th and will be on the road in the first round. Failing to earn more points (vs. Quinnipiac) on Friday than Colgate (at Yale) would lock the Crimson into last place for the first time in program history.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Engineer Bracketology: Week 2

If you're going to win one game in a weekend, do it against a TUC - that's the lesson of the PairWise. The other lesson this week - other games definitely play a role as to whether you're in the tournament or not. This week, the Engineers are in the tournament thanks more to Brown's 3-point weekend than their own 2-point showing.

1. Quinnipiac*
2. Minnesota
3. Miami*
4. Boston College*
5. New Hampshire
6. North Dakota
7. Minnesota State
8. Niagara*
9. Western Michigan
10. St. Cloud State*
11. UMass-Lowell
12. Denver
13. Dartmouth
14. Notre Dame
15. Yale
16. Rensselaer
17. St. Lawrence
18. Robert Morris
19. Alaska
20. Union
21. Nebraska-Omaha
22. Merrimack
23. Boston University
24. Ferris State
25. Ohio State
26. Providence
27. Northern Michigan
28. Wisconsin
29. Colgate
30. Colorado College
31. Holy Cross
32. Brown

In: Dartmouth, Rensselaer
Out: Boston University, Merrimack

TUCs
In: Brown
Out: none

Well, there it is. For the first time this season, the Engineers are in the tournament field, even if it's just barely and it's contingent upon having ZERO upsets in the conference tournaments. Here's what the bracket would probably look like:

Providence
1. Quinnipiac
2. Niagara
3. St. Cloud State
4. Notre Dame

Grand Rapids
1. Minnesota
2. Minnesota State
3. Western Michigan
4. Rensselaer

Toledo
1. Miami
2. North Dakota
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Yale

Manchester
1. Boston College
2. New Hampshire
3. Denver
4. Dartmouth

If the season ended today, the Engineers are almost certainly playing Minnesota - there's not much of a reason for them to be playing anyone else. So, once again, there's making the tournament, then there's getting a favorable draw, and this certainly isn't one.

The problem? Well... there's not much space for upward mobility right now for Rensselaer. That's a big issue, one that doesn't leave much room for error.

Here's another problem - the TUC cliff.

25. Boston University (.5099)
26. Alaska (.5063)
27. Ohio State (.5040)
28. Colgate (.5033)
29. Colorado College (.5025)
30. Holy Cross (.5017)
31. Northern Michigan (.5014)
32. Brown (.5005)
--
33. Cornell (.4995)
34. Air Force (.4969)
35. UConn (.4960)
36. Bowling Green (.4936)

The Engineers' current record against TUCs is 9-9-4. That's a .500 record, which has really helped propel them into the tournament field. The problem is, they are 3-0-1 against Colgate and Brown, and both of those teams are hanging right there on the cliff. If they fall out, the Engineers will tumble down the PWR in a hurry.

Cornell hanging out on the outside of the TUC cliff is intriguing, but as of now they're of no help to the Engineers. Because they went 1-1-0 against the Big Red this season, adding them to a TUC record that's already at .500 will have zero impact. However, it's good to have them there as a backup if Brown or Colgate falls out. Then there's BU at the top of the TUC cliff. They're not in major danger yet of falling out, but they've entered the cliff zone. It would be nice to get rid of that TUC loss.

Anyway, as part of the limited upward mobility for the Engineers, there are only four comparisons out there that they currently lose that would have a shot at being flipped in the near future:
Nebraska-Omaha - As mentioned last week, this is another one of those comparisons that hinges exclusively on RPI (Union, Wisconsin, Providence, and Niagara are the other major cases), and it's getting closer despite the fact that UNO didn't play last weekend. Need UNO losses and Rensselaer wins.

Yale - The two H2H wins are the only points the Engineers have right now, but this is razor thin due to a COp tie at the present. Yale has tiny leads in RPI and TUC. That makes a Colgate win over Yale huge for Rensselaer - it would drop Yale's RPI, TUC record, and COp record all at once, not to mention shoring up the Raiders' position as a TUC. If Colorado College were to fall off the TUC cliff, Yale would lose a TUC win there too, so we can toss that onto our to-do list, and Holy Cross being a TUC gives them an extra TUC loss.

Dartmouth - The Big Green lead 3-2 on RPI, TUC, and H2H, while the Engineers have COp and H2H. Pretty simple here, we're rooting against Dartmouth, especially against Quinnipiac. The tricky part comes in with Dartmouth's 3-0-0 record against Brown, which means Brown as a TUC actually helps the Big Green more than it does Rensselaer. For this comparison and this comparison only, we would want Brown out as a TUC, but the problem is that the Bears help the Engineers win other comparisons (see below). However, Cornell could help out as well if they became a TUC, as DC was 0-1-1 against the Big Red.

Western Michigan - I threw this in not because of anything either team can do to impact this comparison this week, but because the TUC cliff could benefit the Engineers here. WMU is 2-0-0 against Northern Michigan this season, which helps bolster their TUC record for a 2-1 comparison win right now. Dumping NMU as a TUC would help make this closer in TUC, and the Engineers are already winning COp. Not likely to flip this week, but it could be made very, very close.

Here are the ones they flipped in the last week:
Union - All about RPI, and the Engineers moved ahead of the Dutchmen in RPI over the weekend, but it's close enough to be keeping an eye on. Still rooting for Union to lose - although their game against SLU on Friday is problematic. More on that in a minute.

Merrimack - TUC was flipped thanks to Brown's TUC accession and Merrimack's loss to Boston College on Sunday. RPI flipped as well to give the Engineers a 2-1 comparison lead. The RPI lead is slight enough that we still need to root against the Warriors, however.

Northern Michigan - This flipped entirely because of Brown's move into the TUC ranks - it had nothing to do with how Rensselaer played over the weekend whatsoever. That gives the Engineers a 2-1 comparison lead, but the TUC edge is razor thin. Fortunately, NMU is even closer to the TUC cliff than they were last weekend. If they fall out, there's no need to worry about their comparison, and that's probably the easiest route.

Finally, the comparisons Rensselaer presently wins, but could lose in the short-term:
Notre Dame - All on TUC and COp. COp can't be lost, but TUC is close. We need Colgate and Brown to stay up, we need Alaska and Ohio State to stay up (ND was 0-3-1 against the Nanooks and Buckeyes) and NMU falling out would help here as well (ND was 2-0-0 against them). RPI beating St. Lawrence is important, too, since SLU is a TUC.

St. Lawrence - Speak of the devil. The Engineers could make this rather solid with a win over the Saints on Saturday, which would give them two H2H wins. It's 2-2 right now and a Rensselaer win on RPI and H2H, but TUC and COp are close enough to get pushed. Thus, we may need to hope Union knocks them off on Friday to shore up TUC and COp, and if the Engineers add another H2H win on Saturday, that would make things pretty solid.

Robert Morris - This isn't really that close, but Holy Cross as a TUC gives RMU 10 games against TUCs, which kicks that part of their comparisons into consideration. Otherwise, it's a 2-0 Rensselaer advantage, though RPI is close. Just something to keep an eye on for the time being, and engage in some preventative rooting against the Colonials.

Providence - The Friars are solid on COp, the Engineers solid on TUC. This hinges on RPI, and the 'Tute is just barely ahead of PC there. Definitely need to root against Providence.

Wisconsin - The Badgers' loss to Penn State last night had some seriously bad repercussions for UW. They tumbled in RPI and subsequently the PWR. This one is also on RPI, and while it's not as close as Providence, it's close enough that we need to keep rooting against Bucky - problem is, they play UNO this week.

Further adding to the Engineers' problems, there's a great deal of flux going on just below the tournament field. Losses by Merrimack and Wisconsin in the last week sucked them way down the chart. Rensselaer's loss to Cornell actually put them down in 23rd for the night. It's simply going to be difficult for any of these teams to lose games going forward and still have a decent shot at an at-large bid.

They have to keep winning games, especially Saturday's game since it's the last one they're guaranteed to have against a TUC.

With all of that in mind, this week's Engineer Cheering Section. Notable games include tonight's BU-Merrimack game (we prefer Merrimack losing to BU despite the TUC loss to the Terriers in order to shore up the Merrimack comparison), Friday's Brown-Cornell game (we need Brown more than we need Cornell) and SLU-Union (Union can help us shore up the SLU comparison as long as the Engineers win too in order to mitigate negative impacts on the Union comparison). In the WCHA, we look at the UW-UNO series (take Bucky this week, then hope they lose next week to St. Cloud) and we are watching BU-UVM (now is the time to root against the Terriers to drop them as a TUC).

Tonight
Boston University over Merrimack
Boston College over UMass-Lowell

Friday
Holy Cross over Army
Sacred Heart over UConn
Air Force over Niagara
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris
Michigan State over Western Michigan
Bowling Green over Notre Dame
Ferris State over Michigan
Lake Superior State over Northern Michigan
Ohio State over Miami
Alaska over Alaska-Anchorage
Colgate over Yale
Rensselaer over Clarkson
Brown over Cornell
Princeton over Dartmouth
Quinnipiac over Harvard
Union over St. Lawrence
Boston College over Providence
UMass-Lowell over Merrimack
New Hampshire over UMass
Vermont over Boston University
Wisconsin over Nebraska-Omaha
Alabama-Huntsville over Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota over Denver
Minnesota State over Colorado College
St. Cloud State over Michigan Tech
Bemidji State over North Dakota

Saturday
Sacred Heart over UConn
Holy Cross over Army
Mercyhurst over Robert Morris
Air Force over Niagara
Michigan State over Western Michigan
Bowling Green over Notre Dame
Ferris State over Michigan
Lake Superior State over Northern Michigan
Ohio State over Miami
Alaska over Alaska-Anchorage
Colgate ties Brown
Clarkson over Union
Cornell over Yale
Quinnipiac over Dartmouth
Rensselaer over St. Lawrence
Boston College over Providence
New Hampshire over UMass
Vermont over Boston University
Wisconsin over Nebraska-Omaha
Alabama-Huntsville over Minnesota-Duluth
Minnesota over Denver
Minnesota State over Colorado College
St. Cloud State over Michigan Tech
Bemidji State over North Dakota

Sunday
UMass-Lowell over Merrimack

Monday, February 25, 2013

Men's Hockey - at Cornell/Colgate (22/23 Feb)

Sometimes when you're playing well, things around you start falling into place. RPI had to settle for a weekend split in Central New York, falling for the first time in seven games with a 4-1 loss at Cornell before bouncing back with a dramatic 3-2 at-the-death overtime victory over Colgate. Fortunately for the Engineers, nearly every single game around the league went their way, and despite just two points on the weekend, RPI is still in second place, and looking very good for their first-ever first-round bye.

Cornell
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

With injuries to Matt Tinordi and Marty O'Grady still keeping those upperclassmen sidelined, RPI rolled with the same exact lineup for the third consecutive game.

For the first time in several games, the Engineers turned in a bad period in the first that really ended up costing them. They spent much of the first 20 minutes on their heels, and Cornell capitalized with a 14-7 shooting edge. The Big Red also capitalized with the game's first two goals, which came 1:09 apart from each other near the period's midway point.

On Cornell's first goal, Nick Bailen turned the puck over with a bad cross-ice pass in his own zone, giving the Big Red all the ice they needed to work the puck past Jason Kasdorf and go ahead 1-0. Then, moments later, Cornell quickly converted on a shot from the outside just after winning a faceoff in the RPI zone to take the two-goal edge, always a difficult situation when playing on the road at Lynah Rink.

RPI had plenty of chances to pull themselves back into the game late in the first period and early in the second period, as Cornell's Brian Ferlin was called for three minors practically back-to-back-to-back (slashing, hooking, and boarding), but the Cornell penalty kill did a tremendous job of keeping the Engineers out of the net despite some decent play on the man advantage.

On the third such power play chance, another spot error by RPI ended with a Cornell goal, as Bo Dolan caught an edge while going to take the puck at the blue line, and Cornell senior Greg Miller pounced on it and took the breakaway practically as soon as he touched the puck. He skated the length of the ice and beat Kasdorf to make the score a daunting 3-0 hole for the Engineers.

RPI actually did a decent job of controlling the puck in the final two periods, regaining shot parity in the second with a lopsided 17-4 shooting edge, but they'd get no closer than within two, pulling back the shorthanded goal with Travis Fulton's first collegiate tally with about four minutes left in the second.

From there, Cornell went into lockdown mode, and although the Engineers did pretty well with the extra skater for over a minute, they took few shots, and when the Big Red cleared the zone, they were able to easily score on the empty net with 32 seconds left to ice it.

The loss snapped RPI's streak of eight straight wins in ECAC play, but the collateral damage in the standings was minimal. St. Lawrence beat Harvard, but losses by Dartmouth, Yale, and Union helped keep the Engineers in a solid position heading into Saturday night, just one point behind the Saints for second place.

Colgate
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

Seth Appert made it four straight games with no changes to the lineup despite the previous night's loss. While the Engineers were coming off a six-game winning streak ending, the Raiders were celebrating the end of a four-game losing streak the previous night against Union.

The first period on Saturday was full of back and forth, neither team really establishing themselves as the aggressor. The only notable event of the period, really, was a roughing penalty picked up by Curtis Leonard 15 minutes into the contest, which the Engineers killed without much fuss.

Leonard's second penalty proved more problematic. Coming just 32 seconds into the second period, it gave Colgate their second power play of the night on relatively fresh ice, and ended just 38 seconds later with the Raiders' first goal of the night.

A holding call against Greg Burgdoerfer midway through the period provided Colgate with their second power play goal of the night, making it 2-0 with just under 30 minutes left to play and the Engineers beginning to look like they were in for a bad weekend at the wrong time, hampered by significant offensive struggles just as they were looking like a force to be reckoned with.

Then, an offensive spark was provided by an unusual outlet - defenseman Luke Curadi. His blue line blast two minutes after the Raiders had taken the lead was redirected in front by Mark Miller to cut the Colgate lead in half, 2-1. Five minutes later, RPI converted on their second power play opportunity of the night as Nick Bailen scored his 11th goal of the season to tie the game at two heading into the third period.

Among the things RPI started doing right in the second half of the game was staying out of the box. Colgate was 2-for-3 on the power play by the time they took a 2-0 lead, but it was the last time they would get an opportunity with the man advantage. The Engineers got a third power play chance six minutes into the third, but were unable to convert, eventually taking the game to overtime.

RPI fans had reason to be upset after an uncalled trip deprived them of a juicy 2-on-1 opportunity in the extra period of hockey, but the Engineers would get their comeuppance as the final seconds began to tick off the clock. With only 10 seconds remaining before both teams would leave with a point, Matt Neal managed to work in his eighth goal of the season, stealing a point from Colgate, securing a home-ice playoff series in at least the first round, and sending RPI back to Troy sitting alone in second place once again.

On Saturday night, it wasn't just the Engineers providing good results for their chances. Union, St. Lawrence, Princeton, and Clarkson all lost at just the right time to not only boost RPI back into second, but leave them looking exceptionally good heading into the year's final league weekend for a top four finish at least.

Other junk - RPI picked up 57 votes in this week's USCHO.com poll, just missing out on being ranked as the top vote-getter among those who weren't ranked, 23 behind #20 Providence. Quinnipiac (beat Yale, tied Brown) remains the top-ranked team in the nation with 37 first place votes. Other ranked ECAC teams are #15 Yale (lost to Quinnipiac and beat Princeton, down two) and #18 Dartmouth (lost to Clarkson and beat St. Lawrence, up one). St. Lawrence (36) and Union (14, formerly #20) also received votes. Other ranked teams on RPI's schedule this year include #5 New Hampshire (no change), #7 St. Cloud State (no change), #9 Minnesota State (no change), and #19 Boston University (down four). Ferris State (12) also received votes.

It wasn't a great weekend in net for Jason Kasdorf, but he's still fourth in the nation in goals against (1.63) and sixth in save percentage (.938). He's now tied for fourth in winning percentage (.750). In the ECAC only, he's second in all three categories.

Matt Neal is tied for 10th in the ECAC with 17 points in league play. 9 of those points have come on the power play, good for a tie for 5th in that category. He leads the team overall with 27 points.

Meanwhile, Nick Bailen has 5 power play goals in league play now, which has him tied for 3rd. Nationally, he ranks fourth in points per game by defensemen at 0.84. He picked up a secondary assist on Neal's overtime winner to give him 100 points for his collegiate career, 84 of which have been scored with the Engineers.

Ryan Haggerty leads RPI in goals with 12, followed by Bailen with 11. Last season's goal scoring leader was C.J. Lee with 8, Neal, Bailen, Haggerty, and Jacob Laliberte all have 8 or more already with three others - Milos Bubela, Mike Zalewski, and Mark Miller, all freshmen - sitting on 7 each.

Last year's Engineers scored a total of 78 goals in 39 games. This year's team has 88 in 32 thus far.

Concluding the regular season is a visit from Clarkson and St. Lawrence. The latter of the two games promises to be huge with the Saints sitting in third place just a point behind RPI, but the Engineers are in a position where they can lock up second before SLU ever gets to Troy if they can beat their old rivals and get the right results elsewhere.

ECAC Standings
1. Quinnipiac - 35 points (16-1-3)
2. RPI - 23 points (10-7-3)
3. St. Lawrence - 22 points (9-7-4)
4. Yale - 21 points (10-9-1)
5. Dartmouth - 21 points (9-8-3)
6. Union - 20 points (8-8-4)
7. Clarkson - 19 points (8-9-3)
8. Brown - 18 points (6-8-6)
9. Princeton - 17 points (7-10-3)
10. Cornell - 17 points (7-10-3)
11. Colgate - 15 points (6-11-3)
12. Harvard - 12 points (5-13-2)

RPI at Cornell
ECAC Game - Lynah Rink (Ithaca, NY)
2/22/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: Cornell 4, RPI 1

BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO

RECORD: 14-12-5 (9-7-3 ECAC, 21 points)


RPI at Colgate
ECAC Game - Starr Rink (Hamilton, NY)
2/23/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: RPI 3, Colgate 2 (OT)


BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO



RECORD: 15-12-5 (10-7-3 ECAC, 23 points)

Upcoming games
02 Mar - Clarkson
03 Mar - St. Lawrence
08 Mar OR 15 Mar - ECAC Playoffs (Troy, NY)
09 Mar OR 16 Mar - ECAC Playoffs (Troy, NY)
10 Mar OR 17 Mar - ECAC Playoffs (Troy, NY, if necessary)

Women's Hockey - Cornell & Colgate (22/23 Feb)

With the Engineers locked into the seventh seed, the only thing this weekend provided for RPI was a tune-up heading into the playoffs, and the result was a pair of games where the Engineers appeared to show little motivation, ending the regular season on a sour note with 4-1 and 2-1 losses to Cornell and Colgate respectively.

While the Cornell score was more lopsided, it was Saturday's game which was arguably the lesser of the two from the Engineers, who looked out-of-it for their senior day.

With Clarkson defeating Harvard in their final game of the season and Cornell locking up first place, the Golden Knights captured second place in the ECAC and thus will host the Engineers next weekend for a best-of-three quarterfinal playoff series in Potsdam.

Cornell
Smelker/Gruschow/Mari Mankey
Wash/Horton/Svoboda
Letuligasenoa/Sanders/Walsh
Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Middlebrook/Banks
Godin/Marzario

O'Brien

Cornell has sat near the top of the league standings for the entire season and Friday night provided the opportunity for the Big Red to essentially clinch first place with a win all but guaranteed the following night at Union.

The Big Red came out strong and didn't look back, with two power play goals in the second period, a goal in the first and an empty netter tacked on for good measure in a 4-1 victory over the Engineers.

Hayleigh Cudmore got the visitors on the board at 13:27 of the first period, putting a loose puck past Kelly O'Brien with the majority of both squads either in or quite near the crease.

Penalties spelled disaster for the Engineers in the second period, allowing the Big Red to notch two goals and dominate play en route to a 22-3 shot advantage in the frame.

Lauriane Rougeau scored at 12:42 of the second period, sneaking one past O'Brien from a very sharp angle to make it a 2-0 game. Emily Fulton scored a back-breaker with just two seconds remaining in the period to make it 3-0 after several Engineers were unable to clear the crease, allowing Cornell several tries at the net, with Fulton's eventually finding its way past O'Brien.

Mari Mankey got the Engineers on the board in the middle of the third period with a power play goal of her own, putting a rebound off a Jordan Smelker shot past Cornell netminder Lauren Slebodnick to make it 3-1. The play accounted for two of the Engineers' three shots in the frame.

RPI would muster more pressure in the third period but were unable to pot another goal, and instead it was Cornell who capitalized with RPI's net empty as Alyssa Gagliardi put home an empty netter to reach the final 4-1 score.

Colgate
Wash/Horton/Svoboda
Smelker/Gruschow/Mari Mankey
Letuligasenoa/Sanders/Walsh
Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Middlebrook/Banks
Godin/Marzario
Schilter

O'Brien

Saturday afternoon saw the Engineers face another opponent who had something to play for, as Colgate needed a win coupled with a Princeton loss or tie in order to squeak into the eighth seed and qualify for the playoffs.

The Raiders accomplished their goal by taking advantage of a lackluster effort from the Engineers in the final game of the season, leaving Houston Field House with a playoff spot for the first time since 2010. In that series, Colgate was swept by Cornell; the Raiders will face the Big Red again in 2013.

Colgate took a 1-0 lead at 13:35 of the first as Brittany Phillips won a battle along the near side boards and was able to cut in toward O'Brien and sneak a shot under the glove for the goal.

Philips made it 2-0 with her second of the afternoon at 15:57 of the second, firing a shot from directly in front of O'Brien on the power play. Miriam Drubel had a nice pass to set Phillips up for the goal.

The Engineers pulled O'Brien for most of the final three minutes of regulation and Smelker was able to capitalize to draw the Engineers to within one, but the goal didn't come until 19:41 of the third and there simply wasn't enough time for RPI to notch another, leading to the final 2-1 score.

#7 RPI will now travel to Potsdam for a best-of-three series against #2 Clarkson which will prove a very difficult test for the Engineers. Friday night's game will be at 7pm, while Saturday and Sunday (if required) will both be 4pm starts.

The remainder of the playoffs will see #8 Colgate visit #1 Cornell, #6 Dartmouth visit #3 Harvard, and #5 St. Lawrence visit #4 Quinnipiac in what looks to be the most interesting (and probably exciting) matchup. The semifinals and final will take place the following weekend at the highest remaining seed, which barring an extremely unlikely upset would be Cornell.

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RPI vs. Cornell
ECAC Hockey Game – Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
2/22/13 - 7pm
Cornell 4, RPI 1

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/02/22/cornell-vs-rensselaer/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wcorren1.f22

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/2/22/WICE_0222133002.aspx
Cornell: http://cornellbigred.com/news/2013/2/22/WICE_0222134008.aspx
Video Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNyVWtBg5AE
Complete Game Video: http://rpitv.org/productions/546-womens-hockey-vs-cornell

RECORD: 10-19-4 (8-11-2 ECAC)

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RPI vs. Colgate
ECAC Hockey Game – Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
2/23/13 - 4pm
Colgate 2, RPI 1

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/02/23/colgate-vs-rensselaer/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wclgren1.f23

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/2/23/WICE_0223134522.aspx
Colgate: http://gocolgateraiders.com/news/2013/2/23/WHOCKEY_0223131638.aspx
Video Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=coZFNisW37M
Complete Game Video: http://rpitv.org/productions/547-womens-hockey-vs-colgate

RECORD: 10-20-4 (8-12-2 ECAC)

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Final ECAC Standings

(Note: Harvard and Yale have one game remaining which was postponed during the blizzard on 2/8, but it cannot impact the standings, only final point totals and Harvard's potential for an at-large NCAA bid.)

1. Cornell - 37 points (18-3-1)
2. Clarkson - 36 points (18-4-0)
3. Harvard - 34 points (16-3-2)
4. Quinnipiac - 29 points (13-6-3)
5. St. Lawrence - 28 points (12-6-4)
6. Dartmouth - 26 points (11-7-4)
7. RPI - 18 points (8-12-2)
8. Colgate - 15 points (6-13-3)
9. Princeton - 14 points (6-14-2)
10. Yale - 11 points (4-14-3)
11. Brown - 10 points (5-17-0)
12. Union - 4 points (0-18-4)

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Upcoming Games

Mar. 1 (7pm) - ECAC Quarterfinal at Clarkson (Game 1)
Mar. 2 (4pm) - ECAC Quarterfinal at Clarkson (Game 2)
Mar. 3 (4pm) - ECAC Quarterfinal at Clarkson (Game 3, if necessary)

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Where We Stand (23 Feb)

Hey everybody.  There are just seven games remaining on the women's schedule before the playoffs start and there are just three full days (or eighteen games) on the men's side.  As usual, everything is coming down to the wire!  With that out of the way, let's get down to the nitty gritty.

(If you want to skip to the men's explaination, click here)

Women
RPI (8-11-2) has locked themselves into 7th place, but we already knew that.  Just like last night's game against Cornell, tonight's game against Colgate is purely a practice playoff game.  The more amazing part is that each of Clarkson, Cornell, and Harvard can still be the playoff opponent for the Engineers.

Here, the interest definitely lies in the tiebreakers and the race for the ECAC Championship.

If we assume that Cornell (17-3-1) wins against 0-17-4 Union and Harvard (16-2-2) defeats Yale (3-14-3), then it all comes down to the Harvard / Clarkson match-up today.  Cornell would be guaranteed to finish ahead of Clarkson, so they couldn't finish in 3rd, but the placement of the three teams would vary depending on today's game at Bright.

Harvard win: Harvard wins the ECAC Regular Season crown while Cornell finishes 2nd (vs RPI) and Clarkson finishes 3rd (vs Dartmouth)
Tie: Cornell and Harvard tie, with Cornell winning the tiebreaker on ECAC wins.  That means RPI heads to Harvard and Clarkson still finishes 3rd.
Clarkson win: Cornell wins the ECAC Regular Season crown while Clarkson and Harvard tie for 2nd.  Clarkson would sweep the season series and host the Engineers.

If you want a more in-depth breakdown, it is as follows:

Potential tiebreakers:
1st-3rd Place
Cornell / Harvard - Cornell wins this tiebreaker except under one condition.  If the Big Red ties Union (which isn't going to happen) AND Harvard beats Clarkson and loses to Yale (which is the only way that the tiebreaker comes into play) AND Quinnipiac earns more points in their game tonight against Brown than St. Lawrence does against Dartmouth.  In that case, the Crimson and Big Red would have split the season series with each team having won at home and both teams would have 17-3-2 records, rendering the ECAC wins comparison moot.  Harvard would then win based on Record vs Top 4 having gone 4-2-0 while Cornell would have been 3-3-0.

If, instead, Harvard loses to Clarkson and beats Yale, then Harvard would lose on either Record vs Top 4 (if Quinnipiac doesn't make it into the home-ice position) or Record vs Top 8.

In the other case where these two teams meet at 36 points (all three games remaining involving the two teams result in ties), then Cornell would win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins (17-3-2 vs 16-2-4).

If Cornell beats Union (as expected) and Harvard earns three points, then Cornell would win based on ECAC wins (18-3-1 vs 17-2-3).  So, this tiebreaker is almost guaranteed to be a Cornell win.

Clarkson / Harvard - Since the teams are currently tied, Clarkson does not have a game-in-hand, and Clarkson won the matchup in Potsdam in January, if this tiebreaker comes into play, then Clarkson wins the tiebreaker on the season series.

Clarkson / Cornell - If Cornell loses to Union (which definitely isn't going to happen) and Clarkson ties Harvard, then it comes down to whether St. Lawrence or Quinnipiac makes up the last of the Top 4 teams, since they would have split the season series and would both have 17-4-1 records.  If it's the Saints, then Cornell's sweep would give them the tiebreaker.  If it's the Bobcats, then it's Clarkson's sweep that would win the tiebreaker.

If Cornell ties Union (still isn't going to happen) and Clarkson defeats Harvard, then Clarkson wins the tiebreaker on ECAC wins.  Clarkson's 18-4-0 record would best Cornell's 17-3-2 record.

Clarkson / Cornell / Harvard - If these teams finish in a three-way tie, then Clarkson would win the three-way tiebreaker.  It would also only come into play if Harvard does not defeat Clarkson today at Bright Arena, so Harvard could not win the head-to-head tiebreaker against Cornell.  The tiebreaker would split exactly as listed above.

4th-5th Place
Quinnipiac / St. Lawrence - Quinnipiac won the season series by winning at home and then fighting the Saints to a draw last Friday.

8th-11th Place
Colgate / Princeton - Colgate won the season series by earning a draw at home in the second week of the season and then crushing the Tigers in Princeton on February 8th.

Colgate / Yale - Yale swept the season series over Colgate and would win a head-to-head tiebreaker

Brown / Yale - They split the season series with each team winning at home, so it would go down to ECAC wins.  Brown is dominating that comparison right now.  They would either win 5-16-1 vs 3-14-5 or 4-15-3 OR 6-16-0 vs 4-14-4 OR 5-17-0 vs 3-15-4.

What does this all mean?
Harvard controls their own destiny for 1st as of now.  However, if they lose today against the Lady Knights, then the only way that they don't finish 3rd is if Union pulls the upset of the century over Cornell at Messa Rink (and yes, Union would have to beat Cornell, not just tie them).  A tie against Clarkson presumably leaves Harvard's women in 2nd.  However, a loss at home against Yale on Tuesday would drop the Lady Crimson to 3rd.  Harvard would not be able to win the tiebreaker against Cornell, so they would have to earn more points against Yale then Cornell does today against Union to take home the crown and the #1 seed.

Cornell will presumably defeat Union at Messa today, putting the pressure on Harvard to sweep their two remaining games.  If, by some chance, Cornell ties Union, then they lock themselves into the #2 seed and a playoff date against Rensselaer.  Either Harvard will pass Cornell and then Clarkson can't catch the Big Red OR Clarkson and Cornell will be tied at 36 and Clarkson will win the tiebreaker on ECAC wins OR it will be a three-way tie, Clarkson will win the head-to-head portion and Cornell will win the tiebreaker against Harvard.  In the extremely unlikely event that Cornell loses to Union, then Cornell's placement depends on not only the Harvard / Clarkson game, but potentially the Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence placements, too.  If they lose against Union, they're guaranteed to not finish 1st, though.

Clarkson doesn't control their own destiny, but a win today against Harvard means that they can't finish in 3rd.  If Cornell doesn't beat Union, then Clarkson wins the ECAC Regular Season crown.  A tie against Harvard could (in extreme circumstances) still let the Lady Knights take home the crown (Cornell would have to lose to Union and Harvard would have to lose to Yale at home, knowing that the crown was on the line), but they would most likely finish 3rd.  A loss against Harvard definitely sends Clarkson to the #3 seed and a date against Dartmouth.

St. Lawrence controls their fate for 4th place, but they will be playing against Dartmouth (a team who has nothing to play for) and will need to earn at least as many points as Quinnipiac does against Brown.

Quinnipiac needs to earn more points against Brown (who is locked out of the playoffs but can still fight for bragging rights over their travel partner for 10th place) than St. Lawrence does to play host next weekend.

Dartmouth is locked into the #6 seed.

Rensselaer is locked into the #7 seed.

Princeton controls their destiny for the #8 seed.  They need to earn at least as many points in their game against Yale (who is locked out of the playoffs but can still fight for bragging rights over their travel partner for 10th place) than Colgate does against Rensselaer.

Colgate needs to earn more points against Rensselaer (a team who has nothing to play for) than Princeton does to get the last playoff spot.

Brown not only has to play Quinnipiac, they also don't have any control over where they will finish.  They do, however, have control of the tiebreaker over Yale.

Yale CAN finish in 10th, but would need to get more points in games against not only Princeton, but also Harvard than Brown earns against Quinnipiac.  A winnable match-up against the Tigers while Brown has to face a team fighting for home-ice means that it wouldn't be impossible, but isn't a guarantee.

Union is locked into the #12 "seed."

Men
RPI's loss last night to Cornell dropped the Engineers (9-7-3) from sole possession of 2nd to sole possession of 3rd place.  But, never fear. Since the team is facing the North Country pair next weekend, they still control their destiny for 2nd.  What's the mantra?  Win, baby, win!

What results tonight would help the Engineers climb / firm up their standings?  This doesn't take PairWise effects into consideration, it's only looking at the ECAC standings.  Obviously, the first thing is to take care of business today against Colgate.  Around the rest of the ECAC:
Cornell over Union since Cornell would no longer be able to catch the Engineers with an RPI win or tie anyway
Harvard over Clarkson since Harvard can't catch RPI
Quinnipiac over Brown since nobody can catch Quinnipiac
Dartmouth over St. Lawrence to put RPI back into 2nd place by themselves
Princeton not losing to Yale.  Princeton is further behind, but they won the season series over RPI while the Engineers swept Yale

The first three games are pretty easy calls and it would certainly be better to have St. Lawrence behind Rensselaer than in front of them heading into next weekend, but RPI will have their chance to take care of business on Senior Night.  And, Princeton / Yale is nearly a toss-up with positives and negatives to be taken out of any result.

The Engineers have the ability to put Colgate, Cornell, Brown, and Princeton firmly behind them tonight. The first two they can do on their own with a win or a tie, the other two would occur by taking more points than the Bears and/or Tigers.

The State of the Tiebreakers Address (how RPI would fare in a head-to-head tiebreaker against each team in the ECAC):
Brown - Won season series: 3 vs 1.  Clinched.
Clarkson - Winning season series 2 vs 0.  If it comes into play, more likely than not it would end up 2 vs 2.  ECAC ties are currently equal, so it could potentially come down to Record vs Top 4 (or 8).  Yale is a good team to have in the Top 4 and RPI has the advantage in points earned vs Quinnipiac, but St. Lawrence could swing either way and Union cannot work in RPI's favor
Colgate - Winning season series 2 vs 0.  If it comes into play, RPI will have lost each of their last four games of the regular season while Colgate will have won each of their last four.  Clearly, there would be bigger issues to worry about.  However, for the sake of it... it would come down to Record vs Top 4 (or 8).  The Engineers would win season series comparisons against Cornell, Princeton, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence, but would lose comparisons between Colgate and themselves on the basis of Brown, Clarkson, and Union.  If Union stays in the Top 4, it would be difficult to win this tiebreaker.  Again, bigger issues.
Cornell - Split season series 2 vs 2.  If it comes into play, RPI will have lost each of their last four games of the regular season while Cornell will have won each of their last four and they would have idential 9-10-3 records.  RPI would win point-by-point comparisons between themselves and Cornell against Brown, Princeton, Quinnipiac, Yale, and Harvard (who is guaranteed not to be a Top team).  They would lose comparisons against Dartmouth, Union, and Colgate.  If Union stays in the Top 4, it would be impossible to win this tiebreaker.  If the Dutchmen also fall out of the Top 4, then it would be doable.  However, again, bigger issues.
Dartmouth - Split season series 2 vs 2. Both teams are currently equal on ECAC ties, so it could potentially come down to Record vs Top 4 (or 8).  In case you needed any more excuses, it would pay to root against Union here as Dartmouth won the season series with the Dutchmen 3-1.  Dartmouth has chances against both Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence before the season is over, so those advantages can be erased.  This wouldn't be an easy tiebreaker to win.
Harvard - Doesn't matter.  They can't finish tied.
Princeton - Lost season series 1 vs 3.  Anti-clinched.
Quinnipiac - Doesn't matter.  They can't finish tied.
St. Lawrence - Winning season series 2 vs 0.  This one is tough to call.  RPI could still lose their Senior Night game and finish tied, but it would take an odd set of circumstances, especially for this not to be immediately won by RPI on ECAC wins.  St. Lawrence actually defeated Quinnipiac (instead of tying them) and also beat Union in Appleton, so if this goes to Record vs Top 4, it's not looking good for Rensselaer.
Union - Was swept in season series 0 vs 4. Anti-clinched.
Yale - Swept season series 4 vs 0. Clinched.

As far as potential multiple tiebreakers after tonight's games (as calculated by Tom)

SLU/Union: Union, RPI, SLU
Union/Yale: Union, RPI, Yale
Union/Dartmouth: Dartmouth, Union, RPI
Union/Clarkson: Union, RPI, Clarkson
Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth
Dartmouth/Clarkson: RPI, Dartmouth, Clarkson
Clarkson/Yale: RPI, Yale, Clarkson
Union/Yale/Dartmouth: Union, RPI, Yale, Dartmouth
Union/Yale/Clarkson: Union, RPI, Yale, Clarkson
Union/Dartmouth/Clarkson: Dartmouth, Union, RPI, Clarkson
Yale/Dartmouth/Clarkson: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth, Clarkson
Union/Yale/Dartmouth/Clarkson: Dartmouth, Union, RPI, Yale, Clarkson

As far as the rest of the league is concerned...

Quinnipiac (16-1-2) clinched 1st place last week and will host the lowest remaining seed in the ECAC Quarterfinals. Their three remaining games are relevant for trying to keep their #1 position in the PairWise only, although they do have the opportunity to toy with the playoff destinies of Brown, Harvard, and Dartmouth.

St. Lawrence (9-6-4) is in sole possession of 2nd place and even they haven't clinched a home playoff series yet, which illustrates well how close things are. They are one point ahead of RPI in 3rd. They can clinch a first-round bye tonight with a win over Dartmouth AND losses or ties by Yale and Clarkson.

Union (8-7-4) is in sole possession of 4th place, one point behind RPI and one point ahead of 5th place. They cannot clinch a first-round bye tonight, but they control their own destiny for the bye.

Yale (9-9-1), Dartmouth (8-8-3), and Clarkson (8-8-3) are tied for 5th. All three teams have four points in the head-to-head tiebreakers, Yale takes 5th on ECAC wins, Dartmouth 6th on the fourth tiebreaker (record against Top 8 teams). All three control their destiny for home ice, none do for the bye.

Brown (6-8-5) and Princeton (7-9-3) are tied for 8th, two points behind 7th. Brown wins the tiebreaker on a season sweep of the Tigers. Despite the current advantage, Brown does not control their own destiny for home-ice, while Princeton does.

Cornell (6-10-3) and Colgate (6-10-3) are tied for 10th, two points behind 9th. Cornell wins the tiebreaker on a 3-1 season series win over the Raiders. Both teams must win out to have a shot at the first-round bye, and even then it is unlikely.

Harvard (4-13-2) are alone in 12th and will be on the road in the first round of the tournament. A loss to Clarkson and Colgate/Cornell victories would lock them into last place.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Chain Reactions

It's been a rough year in Pyongyang. Kim Jong-il died. They have a fat kid running the joint. Women are down to only 18 choices of hairstyle.

They had to light off a nuclear weapon last week to get attention.

Oh, and their hockey team is in 10th place, almost assuredly destined to finish the season outside the Top 4 for the first time since 1999.

It's been a very un-Big Red season for the Big Red.

By total points earned, the Central New York road trip is technically the easiest one in the league (the Capital District is the hardest), and despite past struggles which have seen the Engineers swept or picking up just one point on this trip 5 times in the last 10 years, they've won three straight games on this trip, including a sweep last year for the first time since 2001.

There's been some success lately against Cornell as well... don't look now, but RPI is unbeaten in three straight against the Big Red, who just snapped a practically unheard of seven-game losing streak last weekend by picking up three points against a Dartmouth team struggling to keep their heads above water and a last-place Harvard team.

Meanwhile, over in Hamilton, Colgate has seen a promising start fade significantly. They haven't won in six straight games, including four straight losses (0-4-2).

RPI is in 2nd place alone, but they need more points or they won't be there long. The sum of the situation means they need to keep the energy high and the nation's longest win streak alive. A sweep would clinch home-ice and almost certainly put the team on the brink of clinching a bye, if not actually clinching it.

Meanwhile, at home, the women play what amounts to a pair of playoff warmup games. Unable to move up or down from 7th place, the results this weekend don't have any impact on them in the slightest. Their opponents, also Cornell and Colgate, are fighting for position. The Cornell game gives the Engineers the opportunity to influence their playoff opponent, but it's impossible today to know exactly how influential it'll be.

And so, in honor of tonight's opponent and recent related news... we present this weekend's pumpup. Stay hot.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Where We Stand (20 Feb)

Steven Burek, our new season reset cruncher, is laid up with a skiing injury, so I'm going to do my best to lay out the situation as it currently exists for RPI and the ECAC in general.

Women
There are two games remaining in the season for most teams. Harvard and Yale have three games left, they play the final game of the season on Tuesday.

RPI (8-10-2) will finish in 7th place, as they are 6 points behind Dartmouth for 6th and 6 points ahead of Princeton in 8th. They will face the 2nd place team in the quarterfinals.

Harvard (16-2-1) and Cornell (16-3-1) are tied for first place, although the Crimson have the game in hand. They play each other on Saturday. These teams, with Clarkson (16-4-0) will finish in some order of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, and will host quarterfinal matchups. Harvard and Clarkson play each other on Saturday.

Tiebreakers are all up in the air right now due to a likely requirement of Top 4 record (and the ambiguity as to who the 4th place team will be). Clarkson has a possible edge on the second tiebreaker, ECAC wins, due to their lack of ties.

The battle for the 4th and final home playoff spot is between St. Lawrence (12-5-3), Quinnipiac (11-6-3), and Dartmouth (10-6-4). These teams will finish in the 4th, 5th, and 6th positions in some order, which means two of them will play each other in the quarterfinals, while the other faces the 3rd place team. St. Lawrence can clinch 4th place on Friday with a win and a Quinnipiac loss or tie. St. Lawrence and Dartmouth play each other on Saturday.

Quinnipiac owns the tiebreaker with St. Lawrence, Dartmouth would likely win the tiebreaker with Quinnipiac on Top 4 record, and Dartmouth is currently losing the tiebreaker with St. Lawrence.

The battle for the 8th and final playoff position is between Princeton (5-13-2), Colgate (4-13-3), Brown (5-15-0), and Yale (3-13-3). The team that comes out on top gets a one-way ticket to the rink of the regular season champion. Princeton takes on Brown and Yale this weekend. Colgate owns the tiebreaker with the Tigers.

Princeton can clinch the 8th seed on Friday with a win over Brown AND a Colgate loss to Union AND a Yale loss to Quinnipiac.

Union (0-16-4) will finish in last place for the 9th time in 10 seasons.

Men
There are four games remaining in the regular season.

RPI (9-6-3) is in sole possession of second place. They cannot finish in 1st, 11th, or 12th.

Relevant tiebreakers for Friday night (presumes loss or tie with Cornell):
Wins the tiebreaker with St. Lawrence on season series (2-0)
Loses the tiebreaker with Union on season series (0-4)
Wins the tiebreaker with Dartmouth (record against Top 4)
Wins the tiebreaker with Yale on season series (4-0)
SLU/Union: Union, RPI, SLU
SLU/Yale: RPI, Yale, SLU
SLU/Dartmouth: RPI, Dartmouth, SLU
Union/Yale: Union, RPI, Yale
Union/Dartmouth: Dartmouth, Union, RPI
Dartmouth/Yale: RPI, Yale, Dartmouth
SLU/Union/Yale: Union, RPI, Yale, SLU
SLU/Union/Dartmouth: Union, Dartmouth, RPI, SLU
SLU/Union/Dartmouth/Yale: Union, RPI, Yale, SLU, Dartmouth

Friday night rooting interests: Brown over Princeton, Clarkson over Dartmouth, Harvard over St. Lawrence, Colgate over Union, Quinnipiac over Yale.

The best case scenario for RPI after Friday is 2nd place, three points ahead of St. Lawrence and Union, with a magic number of five to clinch the spot. The worst case scenario is a three way tie for third with Union and Dartmouth, which would leave the Engineers in the 5th position via tiebreaker.

The best case scenario for RPI after Saturday (before Friday's games are played) is 2nd place, four points ahead of either St. Lawrence or Dartmouth, with a magic number of one to clinch the spot. They cannot clinch 2nd place this weekend because St. Lawrence and Dartmouth play each other on Saturday night.

Quinnipiac (15-1-2) has clinched 1st place. They will host the lowest remaining seed in the ECAC quarterfinals.

RPI and St. Lawrence both control their own fate for 2nd place. Union controls their own fate for 3rd place.

Dartmouth, Yale, Princeton, and Clarkson all control their home-ice destinies.

Harvard is mathematically eliminated from contention for the first-round bye, and functionally eliminated from home ice in the first round. Brown, Colgate, and Cornell are functionally eliminated for the first-round bye.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Engineer Bracketology: Week 1

Welcome to the first edition of Engineer Bracketology for 2013.

If you missed out on the fun in 2011, or you otherwise don't get the point of this exercise, feel free to check out the primer we posted on Sunday. The bottom line is that Engineer Bracketology presumes that the season has ended and that the selection for the national tournament will be made based on currently existing results - we then extrapolate what future results will change things in the Engineers' favor.

And, as a final reminder... we refer to the team as "Rensselaer" during Engineer Bracketology to avoid confusion with the Ratings Percentage Index, a key component of the PairWise Rankings. When we refer to RPI, that is what we're talking about.

Anyway, here's the PWR as they currently exist. Ties have already been broken. League leaders are indicated with stars to best simulate the automatic bids.

1. Quinnipiac*
2. Minnesota
3. Miami*
4. New Hampshire
5. Boston College
6. North Dakota
7. Minnesota State
8. Western Michigan
9. St. Cloud State*
10. Niagara*
11. Denver
12. Yale
13. Boston University
14. UMass-Lowell
15. Notre Dame
16. Union
17. Rensselaer
18. Merrimack*
19. Dartmouth
20. Nebraska-Omaha
21. Alaska
22. Robert Morris
23. St. Lawrence
24. Ohio State
25. Northern Michigan
26. Ferris State
27. Wisconsin
28. Holy Cross
29. Colgate
30. Providence
31. Colorado College

In: UMass-Lowell, Merrimack
Out: Alaska, Dartmouth

TUCs
In: none
Out: none

As you can see, the Engineers are currently on the outside looking in, but not by much. For a significant part of the season, the 16th team in the PWR has been considered "in" the tournament thanks to the strength of Niagara in Atlantic Hockey. The Purple Eagles have been in the top 16 for much of the year, which means they could get an at-large bid even if they don't win the AHA tournament - a tournament, however, they would be favored to win.

At 17th, Rensselaer would be out anyway, but a new wrinkle cropped up this week. Merrimack moved into first place in Hockey East over the weekend, and bracketology presumes that the league leaders are the favorites to win their tournament and, thus, the automatic bid. That leaves Union out of the tournament as of right now.

Distributing the teams to their respective brackets and accounting for attendance concerns, we get the following bracket right now.

Providence
1. Quinnipiac
2. Minnesota State
3. Niagara
4. Merrimack

Grand Rapids
1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. St. Cloud State
4. UMass-Lowell

Toledo
1. Miami
2. North Dakota
3. Yale
4. Boston University

Manchester
1. New Hampshire
2. Boston College
3. Denver
4. Notre Dame

So now the question is... what do the Engineers need to do to get into the tournament? That's easy - win, and keep winning. The ECAC championship is the easiest path into the NCAAs. What we look at here is what can happen elsewhere that would most help the Engineers out to not only get into the tournament, but achieve the highest possible seeding.

One of the things that applies to every team is the overall record against TUCs. Right now, the Engineers have a record of 7-9-3 against teams listed above. That's not awful, but it could use a boost. Problem is, there aren't any really good ways of doing that right now.

One way to do it is for teams the Engineers have lost against falling out of the TUC ranks, or teams they've beaten becoming TUCs. For this, we examine the "TUC cliff," teams that are plus or minus .0100 from the benchmark, which is .5000 RPI.


26. Alaska (.5095)
27. Holy Cross (.5062)
28. Robert Morris (.5039)
29. Northern Michigan (.5032)
30. Colgate (.5013)
31. Colorado College (.5002)
--
32. Air Force (.4963)
33. Lake Superior (.4956)
34. Brown (.4942)
35. Bowling Green (.4921)
36. UConn (.4914)

So, what do we see here? Well, as far as teams falling out, we've got Colgate in danger of falling, a team the Engineers have beaten this year (and play on Saturday). That's a problem. However, there's another team they've played that they picked up a win and a tie against in Brown. We want the Bears to be a TUC as well as the Raiders. Rensselaer doesn't play Brown again unless they face them in the playoffs, so we can root for them to win out in the regular season. As far as Colgate is concerned, we'd love for them to go 3-1-0 the rest of the way, as long as that one loss is on Saturday.

Next, we look at individual comparisons. The Engineers have 30 different comparisons, one with every other TUC. We won't worry about ones that are out of reach (like Quinnipiac, for instance) or ones that are fairly secure (like Colorado College). However, if there are comparisons that are marginal wins or close losses, those are ones we want to focus on.

First, the wins. There are a few more here than are optimal for a team trying to get itself into the tournament.

Yale - The Engineers win this one thanks to two head-to-head (H2H) wins and a better record against common opponents (COp). The latter criteria is close, but should be OK as long as Rensselaer finishes the regular season ahead of the Bulldogs. Yale's TUC record is much better, but RPI is close. For Pairwise purposes, we want Yale to lose whenever possible to shore this up.

Boston University - We can actually thank Harvard in part for this comparison win. It's currently 2-2, and Rensselaer wins on higher RPI. The other criteria win is COp, thanks almost entirely to the Crimson's two victories over BU. The whole thing is rather tight, with BU up just slightly in TUC and they've got the one H2H win. We want BU to lose the same as Yale.

Notre Dame - The Irish have a good RPI edge, but lose on TUC (barely) and COp (Rensselaer had a better series against Ferris State than ND). So to make this better, we need to improve TUC. If Lake Superior becomes a TUC, that's a problem, since ND was 2-0-0 against the Lakers. However, they were also 2-0-0 against Northern Michigan and Alaska, so we'd like the Wildcats and Nanooks to drop. That would be perfect for this situation.

St. Lawrence - This is 2-2, with the Engineers winning on RPI and H2H. Especially with another matchup with the Saints coming next week, this needs to be shored up a bit. The only really good way for this to happen is if SLU loses to Harvard and the Engineers. The Dartmouth and Union games are a little more difficult to deal with as far as the PairWise is concerned.

Wisconsin - This one is close on RPI and TUC, the two criteria the Engineers win to win this comparison. Rooting against the Badgers.

Providence - See also Wisconsin, basically the same situation.

Now, the losses that could soon be flipped. There's one other problem here - the Engineers are losing four  comparisons to teams below them in the PWR (though they're also winning the first three above against teams above them in the PWR, so it almost comes out in the wash).

Merrimack - This is pretty close in both RPI and TUC, while the Warriors are way up in COp. Rooting against Merrimack to shore up RPI and help flip TUC.

Dartmouth - Wins this one on RPI and TUC, and both are close. This one is relatively simple, we want the Big Green to lose - probably even to St. Lawrence.

Nebraska-Omaha - With COp an outright tie, this hinges exclusively on RPI, which UNO has a slight edge in. Root against the Mavericks.

Northern Michigan - Wildcats win this one on TUC and COp. TUC is close, but probably even better would just to be to eject NMU as a TUC altogether, so we don't have to worry about their comparison at all.

Unfortunately, there's only one comparison ahead of the Engineers that is also doable:

Union - Doesn't seem possible at first glance given Union's three H2H wins, but this isn't a stretch to see this possibly flip. Why? Well, the Dutchmen are really only close to being in the tournament because of those wins and their subsequent effect on other comparisons (you're welcome, by the way, Union). However, since they already count for individual comparison points, they don't count as TUC wins for Union in this comparison... or TUC losses for Rensselaer. Taking those games out of the TUC situation, TUC is actually a strong point for the Engineers here. They must win all of RPI, TUC, and COp to win the comparison (with RPI as the tiebreaker), and right now they have TUC and COp comfortably. What does that mean? It means that basically, from here on out, it's all about RPI, plain and simple - and that is very close. If Rensselaer wins games and Union loses them, this will flip to the Engineers in a hurry.

So we have a whole handful of teams we're rooting against and a couple we're certainly rooting for. Here's the gameplan for rooting interests this week as it pertains to the PWR.

The St. Lawrence-Dartmouth game is extremely dicey - if there's going to be a winner, we probably prefer SLU, but a tie might work best, too.

The UMass-Lowell-Boston University series is kind of annoying too, since UML isn't far away in the PWR, but we're trying to hang onto the comparison win with BU. Let's take UML for now and worry about them down the road.

Friday
Mercyhurst over Niagara
Bowling Green over Northern Michigan
Miami over Lake Superior State
Western Michigan over Notre Dame
Michigan State over Alaska
Brown over Princeton
Clarkson over Dartmouth
Harvard over St. Lawrence
Rensselaer over Cornell
Colgate over Union
Quinnipiac over Yale
UMass-Lowell over Boston University
Northeastern over Providence

Saturday
Mercyhurst over Niagara
Bowling Green over Northern Michigan
Miami over Lake Superior State
Western Michigan over Notre Dame
Michigan State over Alaska
Brown over Quinnipiac
St. Lawrence over Dartmouth
Rensselaer over Colgate
Cornell over Union
Princeton over Yale
UMass-Lowell over Boston University
Northeastern over Providence

Sunday
Boston College over Merrimack
Penn State over Wisconsin

Monday
Penn State over Wisconsin

Monday, February 18, 2013

Men's Hockey - Brown/Yale (15/16 Feb)

It's basically official at this point - the Engineers are the hottest team in the country. Riding their winning streak to six with twin home victories over Brown and Yale over the weekend, RPI has now won eight consecutive ECAC contests to move their league record from 1-6-3 on January 12 (the team was in last place) to 9-6-3 today, which is good enough for 2nd place all by themselves. With Quinnipiac clinching the #1 seed on Friday despite losing for the first time in conference play, 2nd is now as high as RPI can get, and they have four more games remaining to hold onto a position that only a month ago seemed impossible.

Brown
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

The weekend opened up with a game against Brown, a squad that had just knocked off Yale 1-0 on Tuesday and certainly had a hot goaltender in senior Anthony Borelli, whose numbers were similar to those of Jason Kasdorf in about as much time between the pipes. With the Engineers clicking well on both sides of the ice, there was only one change from the Clarkson victory, with Travis Fulton coming back into the starting lineup, replacing Andrew Commers.

It didn't take long for RPI to break onto the scoreboard, however. In the first minute of the game, Borelli managed to get a piece of a blue line shot by Guy Leboeuf, but the puck trickled behind him, fluttering in the crease. Mike Zalewski, crashing the net, poked it home for his sixth goal of the season and putting RPI up 1-0 just 46 seconds into the game.

Late in the first period, the Engineers went to work on their first power play of the night, converting after about a minute on the man advantage when Nick Bailen put home a rebound off a shot by Jacob Laliberte to give RPI a 2-0 lead heading into the locker room.

Mark Miller scored his sixth of the season on an odd play midway through the second period to make it 3-0. Streaking up the right side of the ice, he crashed the net and got a shot off, and eventually the puck made its way in despite Borelli appearing to make the initial save.

Meanwhile, Jason Kasdorf made 21 saves in the first two periods, extending his home shutout streak to eight full periods, the longest such streak at RPI since the mid-1950s.

The Engineers put the game on ice early in the third period with a pair of goals by Laliberte and C.J. Lee in the first 4:17 of the period, both on the power play, giving RPI a 5-0 lead for the second consecutive game. That ended the night for Anthony Borelli, who was replaced by Marco DeFilippo as the Engineers started to ease off the gas significantly.

Brown ruined Kasdorf's bid for a third straight home shutout just 39 seconds after Lee's goal, but they would not find the back of the net again. Kasdorf concluded the night with 30 saves on 31 shots, his starting counterpart managed 28 saves on 33 shots.

The win moved the Engineers into a tie for second place with their Saturday night opponents, Yale, making the stakes for the weekend's concluding game just a bit higher.

Yale
Lee-Laliberte-Haggerty
Zalewski-Higgs-Bubela
Neal-McGowan-Burgdoerfer
Rogic-Miller-Fulton

Leonard-Bailen
Leboeuf-Bradley
Curadi-Dolan

Kasdorf

If it's working, there's not much of a need to tweak the lineup, and with RPI outscoring opponents 11-2 in 120 minutes of hockey, there wasn't much of a reason to change lines or personnel, so the exact same lineup came out of the tunnel on Saturday as played on Friday.

Yale, reeling from the loss of their top goaltender to injury and coming off losses to Brown and Union, was certainly the definition of a desperate team. They pushed the pace in the first period and appeared to surprise RPI with a tenacious forecheck, something they are not known for in the least. That contributed greatly to the 7-3 edge the Bulldogs were able to take into the first intermission.

However, it was RPI hitting the locker room with the 1-0 edge after one period. Midway through the period, with the Engineers on the power play, Matt Neal drove the net on a three-on-two opportunity. Yale knocked their own net off its pegs, but Neal followed through and put the puck in. Initially, the goal was waved off, but after review it was determined that the net was not moved by anything RPI did, and thus it was allowed to stand for Neal's seventh goal of the year.

The Engineers got themselves into trouble in the second period thanks to some poor discipline, especially from Milos Bubela. The freshman was called for holding, but he's fortunate it wasn't followed up with a boarding call as well. That was compounded by a check from behind from Guy Leboeuf on the penalty kill, giving Yale a five-on-three for 1:31. Even still, the Engineers nearly killed off the Bubela penalty - that is, until Yale struck on a screened shot from the top of the circle to tie the score.

By the time the third period was underway, St. Lawrence and Union, both just a point behind RPI and Yale, were winning in their games, putting forward a virtual four-way tie for second and boosting the stakes even more for a 1-1 game - and making the game's third goal even more important.

RPI would be the team to get that third goal about five and a half minutes into the third period. Nick Bailen took a perfect pass from Laliberte and skated into the slot, roofing a shot to put the Engineers up 2-1.

The Engineers held that lead through a harrowing four-on-four situation, and had to lean on Kasdorf to hold the lead. The freshman made 11 big stops in the final period to give his team the opportunity to go for their fourth consecutive weekend sweep in league play.

With just under five minutes left in regulation, Mike Zalewski gave RPI breathing room with an insurance goal, his second of the weekend and seventh of the year. After Bubela worked the puck free in the corner, he skated behind the net and dished to Zalewski in front, who rifled it to the back of the net for a 3-1 lead.

That goal was an important spot for the home side, which still had to withstand a Yale onslaught, especially on the penalty kill after a hooking call against C.J. Lee. The penalty kill got the job done, and once Lee got out of the box, the Engineers were 100 seconds away from another four-point weekend. The Bulldogs pulled their goaltender and continued to come up with decent opportunities, but they could not find the right shot that would beat Kasdorf. With 11 seconds left in the game, Mark McGowan sealed things tight with an empty netter for his sixth goal of the year.

With the win, RPI moved themselves into second place, alone, but St. Lawrence and Union, who completed their victories and weekend sweeps, lurk close behind in third just a point away, and Dartmouth and Yale are within one night of catching the Engineers as well, tied for fifth just two points back. That makes these last four games a sprint to the finish, and RPI only has a slight edge going into the last two weeks. They'll need to keep things going if they want to hold their hard-fought position.

Other junk - RPI earned 34 votes in this week's USCHO.com poll, more than any other team that did not reach the Top 20 this week. Ranked ECAC teams this week were #1 Quinnipiac (lost to SLU and beat Clarkson, no change with 34 first place votes), #13 Yale (swept by Union and RPI, down three), #19 Dartmouth (lost to Cornell and beat Colgate, down two), and #20 Union (swept Yale and Brown, re-entered the rankings). St. Lawrence (20) and Colgate (1) also received votes. Other ranked teams on the Engineers' schedule include #5 New Hampshire (no change), #7 St. Cloud State (up one), #9 Minnesota State (no change), and #15 Boston University (down two). Ferris State (9) also received votes.

Jason Kasdorf is up to third in the nation in goals against average at 1.52, and fifth in save percentage at .942.

The one goal Kasdorf gave up against Brown was the first 5-on-5 goal he has given up at Houston Field House since the first period against Princeton on November 30. Following that goal, he had given up four power play goals, one shorthanded goal, and one extra attacker goal, but none at even strength in seven games - and the one goal given up against Yale was also a power play goal.

Nick Bailen is on a total point scoring tear, with five goals in the last four games, and is now tied for fifth in the nation in scoring from defensemen at 0.83 points per game.

Since the beginning of their eight-game league winning streak, RPI is 11-for-27 on the power play, which translates to a conversion rate of 40.7%. That's a big part of why the power play is suddenly 10th in the nation (21.7%) despite its early season struggles.

With Quinnipiac's loss on Friday to St. Lawrence, RPI now has the nation's longest unbeaten streak tied with, of all teams, American International, though all six games in RPI's unbeaten streak were wins, which is also the nation's longest winning streak.

RPI next goes on their final road weekend of the season, which, if all goes well, could be the last time the team leaves Troy until a potential date in Atlantic City if they can get the job done. The teams they face, Cornell and Colgate, are tied for 10th in the league, but Cornell did pick up three points last weekend. These are games that, if RPI wants to pick up that first-round bye for the first time, need to produce points.

ECAC Standings
1. Quinnipiac - 32 points (15-1-2)
2. RPI - 21 points (9-6-3)
3. St. Lawrence - 20 points (8-6-4)
4. Union - 20 points (8-6-4)
5. Yale - 19 points (9-8-1)
6. Dartmouth - 19 points (8-7-3)
7. Clarkson - 17 points (7-8-3)
8. Princeton - 17 points (7-8-3)
9. Brown - 15 points (5-8-5)
10. Cornell - 13 points (5-10-3)
11. Colgate - 13 points (5-10-3)
12. Harvard - 10 points (4-12-2)

Brown at RPI
ECAC Game - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
2/15/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: RPI 5, Brown 1

BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO

RECORD: 13-11-5 (8-6-3 ECAC, 19 points)


#10 Yale at RPI
ECAC Game - Houston Field House (Troy, NY)
216/13 - 7:00pm

RESULT: RPI 4, Yale 1

BOX SCORES
College Hockey Stats
USCHO


RECORD: 14-11-5 (9-6-3 ECAC, 21 points)

Upcoming games
22 Feb - at Cornell
23 Feb - at Colgate
02 Mar - Clarkson
03 Mar - St. Lawrence
08 Mar OR 15 Mar - ECAC Playoffs

Women's Hockey - at Yale & Brown (15/16 Feb)

The final road trip of the regular season was not as kind to the Engineers as they might have hoped, and RPI took only two points from Yale and Brown - defeating the Bulldogs 4-2 on Friday night before suffering a 5-2 loss to the Bears the following afternoon.

With two points on the weekend and results elsewhere around the league, the Engineers are now locked into the seventh seed and will travel to one of Cornell, Clarkson or Harvard. With their playoff seed locked up, next weekend's games against Cornell and Colgate will be for pride and momentum heading into the playoffs.

Yale
Wash/Horton/Svoboda
Smelker/Gruschow/Mari Mankey
Letuligasenoa/Sanders/Walsh
Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Godin/Marzario
Middlebrook/Banks

O'Brien

It took a little while to get going, but a 3-goal third period (including two from Alexa Gruschow) brought the Engineers from a 2-1 deficit to an eventual 4-2 victory over Yale in New Haven.

The Bulldogs took an early lead at 7:03 of the opening period when Kate Martini banged home a rebound on a third chance opportunity.

The score nearly held through the first intermission, but Mari Mankey tied it up for the Engineers with just 49 seconds left in the period. Mankey tipped a Katie Daniels point shot in front of the Yale net and the puck took an odd bounce past netminder Jaimie Leonoff.

The second period went by without any further scoring, with the teams trading a pair of penalties and the Engineers outshooting their hosts 9-4.

It would be Yale that broke the tie early in the third period, but it took only two and a half minutes for the Engineers to tie things back up. Danielle Moncion picked up the tally for the Bulldogs on the power play, with Gruschow evening things at 2-2 off a 2-on-2 rush down ice with Jordan Smelker.

Gruschow picked up her second of the game (twelfth of the season and eventual game-winner) at 9:06 of the third, capitalizing on a turnover on the Yale Blue line and a little give-and-go with Mari Mankey to give RPI a 3-2 lead.

Jenn Godin picked up an insurance goal for the Engineers at 14:52, banking a shot off the skate of Yale defenseman Aurora Kennedy and past Leonoff for RPI's fourth and final goal. The Engineers held Yale to just two shots on goal in the final frame.

Gruschow and Mankey were named first and second stars of the game respectively, while Yale's Kate Martini picked up the third star honors.

Brown
Wash/Horton/Svoboda
Smelker/Gruschow/Mari Mankey
Letuligasenoa/Sanders/Walsh
Missy Mankey

Le Donne/Daniels
Godin/Marzario
Middlebrook/Banks

O'Brien

After turning in a strong performance in Friday's win, Saturday would turn out not to be RPI's day as they fell to Brown by a 5-2 score. Five different players scored for the Bears, led by Alena Polenska who had three assists along with one of the five goals.

Brown notched a pair of goals on just six shots in the first period, with Samantha Woodward scoring at 8:57 before Polenska picked up her goal at 18:15.

Lauren Vella scored to make it 3-0 Brown at 4:02 of the middle period and things were looking bleak for the Engineers, but Toni Sanders got them back into the game with a pair of goals at 5:55 and 11:09 - the latter ringing off the post and past goalie Aubree Moore with RPI on the power play.

The pair of goals by Sanders were the only ones RPI would see on Saturday night, as Brown would go on to add a power play tally to make it 4-2 after the Engineers took three consecutive penalties in the third period, then add a shorthanded empty netter when RPI went for the 6-on-4 extra attacker approach on a late power play. The win, after having defeated Union the night prior, would give the Bears their first weekend sweep since 2009.

With only one weekend left in ECAC play, only two positions are locked up in the standings - RPI in 7th and Union in 12th. With the 7th place finish, the Engineers will travel to the #2 seed in two weeks for the ECAC quarterfinals - however it remains to be seen whether that team will be Cornell, Clarkson, or Harvard as all three teams are still fighting hard for position in the top three spots.

The 8th and final playoff spot will still be up for grabs in the final weekend as Princeton, Colgate, and Brown all still have a shot at it, while SLU, Quinnipiac, and Dartmouth are all jockeying for position in the middle of the playoff pack and hunting for the final home playoff seed.

Next week the Engineers will face Cornell and Colgate at the Field House, and they can expect a tough fight from both as Cornell aims for a first place finish while Colgate fights for the final playoff berth. Game time is 7pm Friday and 4pm Saturday which will also be the Engineers' Senior Night.

-----

RPI at Yale
ECAC Hockey Game – Ingalls Rink (New Haven, CT)
2/5/13 - 7pm
RPI 4, Yale 2

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/02/15/rensselaer-vs-yale/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wrenyal1.f15

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/2/15/WICE_0215130021.aspx
Yale: http://www.yalebulldogs.com/sports/w-hockey/2012-13/releases/20130215bejtoq
Video Highlights: http://www.ecachockey.com/women/video/2012-13/20131502_Yale_RPI-desktop
Complete Game Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7sHA3vjJhA

RECORD: 10-17-4 (8-9-2 ECAC)

-----

RPI at Brown
ECAC Hockey Game – Meehan Auditorium (Providence, RI)
2/16/13 - 4pm
Brown 5, RPI 2

BOX SCORES:
USCHO: http://www.uscho.com/box/womens-hockey/2013/02/16/rensselaer-vs-brown/
College Hockey Stats: http://collegehockeystats.net/1213/boxes/wbrnren1.f16

RECAPS:
RPI: http://www.rpiathletics.com/news/2013/2/16/WICE_0216134754.aspx
Brown: http://brownbears.com/sports/w-hockey/2012-13/releases/20130216z5ln5r

RECORD: 10-18-4 (8-10-2 ECAC)

-----

ECAC Standings

1. Cornell - 33 points (16-3-1)
2. Clarkson - 32 points (16-4-0)
3. Harvard - 29 points (15-2-1)
4. St. Lawrence - 27 points (12-5-3)
5. Quinnipiac - 25 points (11-6-3)
6. Dartmouth - 24 points (10-6-4)
7. RPI - 18 points (8-10-2)
8. Princeton - 12 points (5-13-2)
9. Colgate - 11 points (4-13-3)
10. Brown - 10 points (5-14-0)
11. Yale - 9 points (3-13-3)
12. Union - 4 points (0-16-4)

-----

Upcoming Games

Feb. 22 - Cornell (7pm)
Feb. 23 - Colgate (4pm) (Senior Night)
Mar. 1-3 - ECAC Quarterfinals (at Cornell, Clarkson, or Harvard)