Saturday, March 1, 2014

Where We Stand (01 Mar)

Woo hoo!

A 2-0 (well, 3-0 once you count the ENG) win wraps up home-ice for the Engineers in the first round. Not where anyone thought they'd be at the beginning of the season, but certainly better than how things looked at other points during the year.

The good men of Troy have firmly locked up 7th place and not only is 6th in reach, they control their destiny for 6th. RPI is the only team that controls their destiny for a better position than their current spot in the standings.

The rest of the league...
Union (17-3-1, 35 points) still has 1st firmly locked up. They're in cruise control.

Colgate (12-6-3, 27 points) could not take care of business against Harvard. They have another shot at clinching the #2 seed tonight against Dartmouth. The Raiders are guaranteed to drop no further than 3rd.

Quinnipiac (12-6-3, 27 points) will not go quietly. They are fighting for the opportunity to get 2nd in the conference. They're also guaranteed a top 3 spot.

Cornell (10-7-4, 24 points) certainly doesn't seem like they're fighting for 4th. They are leading Clarkson, but will need to score more points tonight against their Crimson rivals than Clarkson does against Quinnipiac to hold onto a bye position. The Big Red can't fall below 5th.

Clarkson (11-9-1, 23 points) still has a shot at 4th, despite their best efforts at throwing away the position the past three weeks. They could also get passed by Yale and end up as low as 6th.

Yale (9-8-4, 22 points) is out of contention for a bye. Their loss against Union meant they can't climb above 5th and even that would require a win and a Clarkson loss. A loss against RPI tonight means a 7th place finish. Any other set of results lands the Bulldogs in 6th.

Brown (8-12-1, 17 points) blew their chance of catching the Engineers. They can't finish higher than 8th. But, they could be passed by each and any of the next three teams I'm going to mention, so the Bears can drop to 11th.

St. Lawrence (6-11-4, 16 points) let the Bobcats put up a snowman last night. It doesn't put them out of the running for home-ice, just makes it difficult. They can also finish by themselves as low as 11th. They're currently in 9th because their 2-1-1 record against Dartmouth (2-2-0) and Harvard (1-2-1) is the best of the three.

Dartmouth (7-12-2, 16 points) went into central New York and came out with a hard-fought victory over their Ivy brethren.  8th by themselves is within reach, but a misstep tomorrow winds them back in 11th. After St. Lawrence takes 9th, Dartmouth wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against Harvard on ECAC wins (7 vs 6).

Harvard (6-11-4, 16 points) finishes their regular season tomorrow against Cornell, but made a statement last night against the Raiders. They kept themselves alive for 8th, but will need some help from the opponents of their neighbors.

Princeton (4-17-0, 8 points) can't climb out of the basement. They'll be playing at the 5 seed's home ice for the first round of playoffs.

Two-way tiebreakers
Colgate-Quinnipiac: With Yale out of the running for a bye position and Colgate not having tied last night against Harvard, Colgate will win this tiebreaker on ECAC wins or Record vs Top 4.

Cornell-Clarkson: Clarkson on ECAC wins (11 or 12 vs 10 or 11).
Cornell-Yale: Cornell swept Yale head-to-head.

Clarkson-Yale: Clarkson on ECAC wins (11 or 12 vs 10 or 11).
Clarkson-Rensselaer: Clarkson won the season series with a 1-0-1 record, so they'll win this tiebreaker.

Yale-Rensselaer: Can't tie

Brown-St. Lawrence: Brown won the season series with a 1-0-1 record.
Brown-Dartmouth: If it's a tie at 17 points, Brown will win on ECAC wins (8 vs 7). If it's a tie at 18 points, they will each have 8-12-2 records. If Cornell does not stay in the Top 4, then Brown will win this tiebreaker, having earned 5 points to Dartmouth's 4 against teams with a bye. (Side note: If Harvard beats Cornell to knock the Big Red down to 5th, then Brown-Dartmouth at 18 points would also have to include Harvard and Brown wins the three-way tiebreaker, as we see later, so the previous scenario only comes into play with a Brown-Union tie, Dartmouth win over Colgate, Cornell-Harvard tie, and Clarkson win over Quinnipiac. In case you were curious.) If Cornell stays in the Top 4 (they win at least as many points as Clarkson tonight), then both the Bears and the Big Green will have earned 5 points against teams that earned byes. This then goes down to Points vs Top 8. Dartmouth would then win this tiebreaker, having earned 10 points as opposed to Brown's 7. So, to sum up, Brown loss and Dartmouth tie: Brown on ECAC wins; Brown tie, Dartmouth win, Cornell tie, Clarkson win: Brown on Record vs Top 4; Brown tie, Dartmouth win, Cornell still in a bye position: Dartmouth on Record vs Top 8.
Brown-Harvard: Brown swept Harvard.

St. Lawrence-Dartmouth: Dartmouth on ECAC wins (7 or 8 vs 6 or 7).
St. Lawrence-Harvard: St. Lawrence won the season series with a 1-0-1 record.

Dartmouth-Harvard: Dartmouth on ECAC wins (7 or 8 vs 6 or 7).

Three-way tiebreakers
Cornell-Clarkson-Yale: Cornell (3-1-0) really benefited from their sweep of Yale. They'd take home 4th. Clarkson's 11 wins would beat Yale's 10 and land the Knights in 5th.

Clarkson-Yale-Rensselaer: Can't happen

Brown-St. Lawrence-Dartmouth: Brown wins on head-to-head (2-1-1 is just enough). Dartmouth would win the resulting tiebreaker on ECAC wins (7 or 8 vs 6 or 7).

Brown-St. Lawrence-Harvard: Brown wins on head-to-head (3-0-1 is more than enough). St. Lawrence wins the resulting tiebreaker on head-to-head (1-0-1).

Brown-Dartmouth-Harvard: Brown wins on head-to-head (3-1-0). Dartmouth wins the resulting tiebreaker (7 or 8 ECAC wins vs 6 or 7).

Dartmouth-Harvard-St. Lawrence: St. Lawrence wins on head-to-head (2-1-1). Dartmouth wins the resulting tiebreaker (7 or 8 ECAC wins vs 6 or 7).

Four-way tiebreakers
Brown-St. Lawrence-Dartmouth-Harvard: As discussed on Thursday, Brown wins on head-to-head with a 4-1-1 record, putting them in 8th. St. Lawrence wins the three-way tiebreaker on head-to-head with a 2-1-1 record, landing the Saints in 9th. Dartmouth would win the fight for 10th on ECAC wins.

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