Sunday, March 13, 2011

Sunday Bracketology

The Engineers are now back to 16th and out of the NCAA field, but a bunch of good things happened yesterday.

* Minnesota lost. This flipped the comparison with the Gophers back to the Engineers, and since neither team has any games remaining, the Engineers will win this comparison.

* Colorado College won. This flipped the comparison with the Tigers back to CC, but only by the most razor thin margins (less than .0001 RPI). It did, however, have the desired effect of locking up the comparison win against the Badgers.

* Maine lost. This did not, unfortunately, flip the comparison with the Black Bears into the Engineers' favor, but it does at least leave Maine behind Rensselaer in the PairWise with no games left. RPI is close (which would flip the comparison if the Engineers get ahead), but not close enough to reasonably be able to help Rensselaer.

* Minnesota State lost. This has the unfortunate effect of flipping the comparison with Notre Dame into the Fighting Irish's favor, but it had a bonus effect of flipping the comparison with Nebraska-Omaha into the Engineers' favor. Why? Because UNO lost two TUC wins when Minnesota State dropped out as a TUC. So it's a zero-sum prospect for the time being, with the potential to regain the Notre Dame comparison next weekend. Adding Bemidji State as a TUC gives UNO a monstrous FIVE TUC losses, so things have really gone downhill for them this weekend even before you consider that they got swept.

* Cornell lost. I was skeptical yesterday that Cornell could cease to be a TUC, but now I suspect that a Quinnipiac victory tonight would indeed drop the Big Red out of the TUC ranks. That would flip the Notre Dame comparison back and firm up a whole slew of other comparisons.

The TUC cliff:

28. Air Force (.5056)
29. Bemidji State (.5052)
30. Cornell (.5021)
31. Robert Morris (.4985)
32. Minnesota State (.4983)
33. Lake Superior State (.4973)
34. Niagara (.4968)
35. Northeastern (.4952)

So, what do we want tonight?
* Yale, Union, and Notre Dame wins. This speaks to the desire to have no upsets in the conference tournaments. For Notre Dame, we are hoping they advance to play and lose to a TUC.

* Quinnipiac and Harvard wins. Anyone who comes out of these series will be a potential upset, but we want Cornell out as a TUC and a Dartmouth loss could flip the comparison with the Big Green (or at least keep them from winning more comparisons on their own).

* Northeastern and Ferris State wins, as explained yesterday.

* A Wisconsin win, which is weird since we were rooting against them yesterday. The Badgers can't hurt the Engineers anymore unless they win the WCHA championship. Tonight, they can flip the CC comparison back to the Engineers for good if they win - thus, Rensselaer would get to have their cake and eat it too when it comes to the Badgers and Tigers series.

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